Denbighshire

Wales · Wales
-15.7pp WBI 94.4% → 78.8% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
95,820 Population (2021 Census)
94.4% White British (2021)
84.7% White British (2041 projected)
78.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.4%
white other 2.1%
asian 1.7%
black 0.8%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 78.8%
white other 5.7%
asian 7.4%
black 2.8%
mixed 3.2%
other 2.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+6.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.16 · Dissimilarity: 19.9

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 95.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 4.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 18.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.3%
notEnglishPct 3.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

25/100 Low Pressure Rank 248 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum4/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing7/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53.2%
Avg home ownership64.8%
Avg social rent13%
Degree or above29.6%
No qualifications19.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64.8%
Social rent (2021)13%
Private rent (2021)19.7%
Ownership (2041)60.7%
Social rent (2041)12.3%
Social rent change-0.7pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.3%
notEnglishPct 3.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census