Dover

South East · England
-4.4pp WBI 90.3% → 85.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
116,411 Population (2021 Census)
90.3% White British (2021)
87.5% White British (2041 projected)
85.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.3%
white other 4.6%
asian 2.1%
black 0.7%
mixed 1.5%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 85.9%
white other 6.7%
asian 2.7%
black 0.8%
mixed 2.9%
other 1.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+4.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.25 · Dissimilarity: 15.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 42.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.4%
notEnglishPct 7.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

24/100 Stable Rank 257 of 320
Ethnic change4/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.7%
Avg home ownership64.9%
Avg social rent13.5%
Degree or above26.3%
No qualifications18.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64.9%
Social rent (2021)13.5%
Private rent (2021)18.8%
Ownership (2041)64.3%
Social rent (2041)13.4%
Social rent change-0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.4%
notEnglishPct 7.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+2.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census