Chelmsford

East of England · England
-37.9pp WBI 83.0% → 45.1% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
181,523 Population (2021 Census)
83.0% White British (2021)
61.9% White British (2041 projected)
45.1% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 83.0%
white other 5.5%
asian 5.3%
black 2.6%
mixed 2.6%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 45.1%
white other 12.2%
asian 23.2%
black 12.8%
mixed 6.0%
other 0.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.8pp Structural effect
-0.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.39 · Dissimilarity: 9.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 88.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 11.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 38.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.9%
notEnglishPct 10.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

43/100 Low Pressure Rank 124 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum10/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing13/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate58.6%
Avg home ownership65%
Avg social rent12.3%
Degree or above31.4%
No qualifications13.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65%
Social rent (2021)12.3%
Private rent (2021)14.7%
Ownership (2041)53.2%
Social rent (2041)10.5%
Social rent change-1.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.9%
notEnglishPct 10.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+21.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census