Central Bedfordshire
East of England · EnglandEthnic composition trajectory
Census 2011 and 2021 observed, Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061. Shaded band shows 80% confidence interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Central Bedfordshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Ethnic composition: Central Bedfordshire
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±11.5pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 54.5% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 66.0% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 11.5pp on White British share in Central Bedfordshire by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Central Bedfordshire ranges from 62.0% to 72.4% by 2051: a 10.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.2% by 2051
Diversity index
moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.38 · Dissimilarity: 10.4
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion Muslim
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English95.1%
Main language not English4.9%
Cannot speak English well0.5%
Cannot speak English at all0.1%
Total population 3+283,716
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +16.7pp
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum3/20
School10/20
Language0/20
Housing13/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Central Bedfordshire ranks at the 64th percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)1,083
Year-on-year -19.2%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
India 386 35.6%
Nigeria 109 10.1%
Pakistan 66 6.1%
China 41 3.8%
Ukraine 39 3.6%
Romania 38 3.5%
Sri Lanka 36 3.3%
Iran 34 3.1%
Ghana 32 3.0%
Afghanistan 24 2.2%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database).. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Central Bedfordshire from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2022 (2,482 registrations). Total over the full period: 22,996 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 1,194 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Central Bedfordshire in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Central Bedfordshire UK marker
Sex
Male share is 2.1pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Central Bedfordshire, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
India 386 in Central Bedfordshire (35.6%)
Nigeria 109 in Central Bedfordshire (10.1%)
Pakistan 66 in Central Bedfordshire (6.1%)
China 41 in Central Bedfordshire (3.8%)
Ukraine 39 in Central Bedfordshire (3.6%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending March 2026 (released 21 May 2026); Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Central Bedfordshire changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 254,381 in 2011 to 294,255 in 2021 (+15.7%). Non-UK-born residents went from 20,129 (7.9% of population) to 32,493 (11.0%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 234,252 92.1% 261,762 89% +27,510
Ireland-born 2,439 1% 2,217 0.8% -222
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 3,454 1.4% 4,326 1.5% +872
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 2,842 1.1% 9,391 3.2% +6,549
Rest of World 11,394 4.5% 16,559 5.6% +5,165
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Working and not working, by passport group
Census 2021 employment status of Central Bedfordshire residents aged 16 and over, by passport held. Three numbers shown per group:
- The first three columns sum to 100% for each row. Every adult is either in work, unemployed, or inactive.
- In work: share of all adults aged 16+ who have a paid job.
- Unemployed: share of all adults aged 16+ who are looking for work but do not have a job.
- Inactive: share of all adults aged 16+ who are not in the labour market. Includes retirees, full-time students, those looking after family, the long-term sick.
- Employment rate (last column): share of those who are trying to work (excluding full-time students) who have a job. Almost always higher than In Work because it leaves out everyone who is retired, raising kids, or in full-time study.
Passport group Pop 16+ In work Unemployed Inactive Employment rate
UK passport 197,386 66.5% 2.4% 31.1% 97.0%
Irish passport 2,325 58.8% 2.5% 38.6% 96.4%
EU member country passport 11,126 79.8% 3.2% 17.0% 96.8%
Rest of Europe (non-EU) 431 64.3% 5.3% 30.4% 92.8%
African passport 1,092 67.6% 8.3% 24.1% 91.8%
Middle East / Asian passport 2,141 47.6% 7.1% 45.3% 93.9%
Americas / Caribbean passport 684 68.9% 3.5% 27.6% 95.6%
Oceania / Antarctica passport 247 80.2% 2.4% 17.4% 97.0%
No passport held 21,322 31.9% 3.5% 64.6% 91.0%
ONS Census 2021 RM021, Economic activity status by passports held, by local authority district. NOMIS NM_2121_1. Stock measure on Census Day (21 March 2021). Passports-held is a proxy for nationality (UK = UK passport holder). Employment rate excludes full-time students from the denominator (the standard ONS definition). The 'inactive' category includes retirees, full-time students who do not work, those looking after family, long-term sick, and other reasons.
Schools, first language
Across 135 state-funded schools in Central Bedfordshire (49,740 pupils, 2024/25), 10.2% have a first language other than English.
Pupils with first language other than English5,033 (10.2%)
Pupils with first language English44,324 (89.7%)
Free school meals16.1%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Central Bedfordshire ranks at the 14th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k52.5
Violent crime / 1k18.5
Theft / 1k19.3
ASB / 1k13.5
Drug offences / 1k1.3
Year-on-year -0.4%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 61th percentile nationally.
Gross spend / head£491
Residential / 10k 65+116
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Central Bedfordshire's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 15.8%
White: English 16.1%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 9.4%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
Special educational needs
EHCPs and primary need breakdown, 2024-25 academic year. 5-year EHCP growth at the 92th percentile nationally.
EHCPs / 10k213
Total EHCPs6,256
5-yr growth +103.4%
DfE Special educational needs in England, academic year 2024/25 (sen_phase_type_.csv + sen_secondary_need_.csv).. EHCP responsibility sits with upper-tier authorities only, ~153 LAs in coverage. Rate-per-10k uses total LA population (Census 2021) as denominator since school-age population is not in the ethnic-projections feed; cross-LA comparison is therefore directional rather than absolute. Rising EHCP counts may reflect improved identification, changes in diagnostic criteria, increased parental awareness, or genuine prevalence change.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Central Bedfordshire pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015–2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000–£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000–£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000–£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150–£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate62.7%
Avg home ownership68.3%
Avg social rent12.6%
Degree or above31.3%
No qualifications14.1%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Central Bedfordshire are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up31.6%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount41,501
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)166
HMOs per 1,000 population0.56
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Central Bedfordshire's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 73.5%
White: English: owned 74.5%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 55.6%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)68.3%
Social rent (2021)12.6%
Private rent (2021)13.2%
Ownership (2041)63.5%
Social rent (2041)11.8%
Social rent change-0.8pp
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
School demographics
DfE School Census 2024/25. 48,740 pupils.
White British pupils74.0%
Minority pupils26.0%
EAL growth (projected)+9.5pp
White British gap (school vs population)9.5pp
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Central Bedfordshire, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Central Bedfordshire on Asylum Stats →