Blaenau Gwent

Wales · Wales
-14.5pp WBI 95.7% → 81.2% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
66,903 Population (2021 Census)
95.7% White British (2021)
86.7% White British (2041 projected)
81.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 95.7%
white other 2.2%
asian 0.9%
black 0.6%
mixed 0.4%
other 0.2%

Projected 2051

white british 81.2%
white other 6.2%
asian 5.9%
black 2.4%
mixed 2.6%
other 1.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.4pp Structural effect
+6.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.13 · Dissimilarity: 21.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 96.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 3.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 13.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.1%
notEnglishPct 3.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

22/100 Stable Rank 267 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing5/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.8%
Avg home ownership59.2%
Avg social rent23.3%
Degree or above21.2%
No qualifications27.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)59.2%
Social rent (2021)23.3%
Private rent (2021)15.9%
Ownership (2041)55.7%
Social rent (2041)22.4%
Social rent change-0.9pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.1%
notEnglishPct 3.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census