Arun

South East · England
-8.8pp WBI 88.6% → 79.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
164,887 Population (2021 Census)
88.6% White British (2021)
83.3% White British (2041 projected)
79.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.6%
white other 7.2%
asian 1.6%
black 0.5%
mixed 1.5%
other 0.6%

Projected 2051

white british 79.8%
white other 14.3%
asian 1.6%
black 0.5%
mixed 3.2%
other 0.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+4.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.27 · Dissimilarity: 14.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 89.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 10.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 35.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.1%
notEnglishPct 11.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

21/100 Stable Rank 274 of 320
Ethnic change8/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing13/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54%
Avg home ownership70.4%
Avg social rent9.2%
Degree or above25.9%
No qualifications19.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)70.4%
Social rent (2021)9.2%
Private rent (2021)18.4%
Ownership (2041)68.8%
Social rent (2041)9.1%
Social rent change-0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.1%
notEnglishPct 11.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+5.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census