Higher asylum dispersal rates correlate with higher recorded crime - but deprivation is the common driver

Among our 25 tracked local authorities, there is a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.68) between the asylum dispersal rate per 10,000 residents and the total police recorded crime rate per 1,000 residents.

Blackpool has the highest crime rate (142.8 per 1,000) and a heavy asylum caseload. Ribble Valley has the lowest crime rate (32.4) and minimal asylum presence.

This correlation does not establish causation. Both metrics correlate with the Index of Multiple Deprivation - asylum dispersal policy places people in areas with available housing stock, which tends to be in more deprived areas. More deprived areas independently have higher recorded crime rates.

Other confounders include urbanisation, policing intensity, crime recording practices, and local economic conditions. Without controlling for these factors, the raw correlation is not evidence that asylum seekers cause higher crime.

Methodological limitation: This is a bivariate correlation across n=25 areas with no statistical controls. A proper analysis would partial out IMD deprivation rank, urbanisation, and policing intensity. Until those controls are applied, the correlation coefficient should not be cited as evidence of any relationship between asylum dispersal and crime. The small sample size (25 LAs) further limits statistical power. We present this for transparency, not as an analytical finding.

The data is presented for transparency. Draw your own conclusions - but draw them honestly.