Warwick

West Midlands · England
-28.7pp WBI 75.9% → 47.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
148,454 Population (2021 Census)
75.9% White British (2021)
58.0% White British (2041 projected)
47.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 75.9%
white other 8.7%
asian 9.7%
black 1.1%
mixed 3.0%
other 1.6%

Projected 2051

white british 47.2%
white other 22.1%
asian 16.5%
black 1.0%
mixed 7.0%
other 6.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.3pp Structural effect
-0.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.49 · Dissimilarity: 4.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 83.7%
Foreign-born (2021) 16.3%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 47.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.6%
notEnglishPct 16.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

50/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 86 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum14/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.3%
Avg home ownership58.9%
Avg social rent12.6%
Degree or above40.4%
No qualifications11.2%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)58.9%
Social rent (2021)12.6%
Private rent (2021)17.7%
Ownership (2041)52.9%
Social rent (2041)11.7%
Social rent change-0.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.6%
notEnglishPct 16.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+17.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census