Vale of Glamorgan

Wales · Wales
-15.6pp WBI 92.0% → 76.4% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
131,939 Population (2021 Census)
92.0% White British (2021)
82.1% White British (2041 projected)
76.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 92.0%
white other 2.6%
asian 2.1%
black 1.6%
mixed 1.1%
other 0.6%

Projected 2051

white british 76.4%
white other 6.0%
asian 7.4%
black 2.7%
mixed 4.9%
other 2.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+5.2pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.22 · Dissimilarity: 17.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 94.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 5.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 22.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.2%
notEnglishPct 3.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

24/100 Stable Rank 259 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing8/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.4%
Avg home ownership69.4%
Avg social rent11.7%
Degree or above35.9%
No qualifications15%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)69.4%
Social rent (2021)11.7%
Private rent (2021)15.1%
Ownership (2041)66%
Social rent (2041)11.4%
Social rent change-0.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.2%
notEnglishPct 3.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census