Nottingham

East Midlands · England
-37.1pp WBI 57.3% → 20.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
323,635 Population (2021 Census)
57.4% White British (2021)
33.3% White British (2041 projected)
20.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 57.4%
white other 8.6%
asian 14.9%
black 9.9%
mixed 5.9%
other 3.3%

Projected 2051

white british 20.2%
white other 11.9%
asian 13.8%
black 17.1%
mixed 3.4%
other 33.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-8.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.2pp Structural effect
-2.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.74 · Dissimilarity: 17.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 26.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 75.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 24.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 60.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 85.7%
notEnglishPct 28.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

78/100 High Pressure Rank 1 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School20/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate40.9%
Avg home ownership33%
Avg social rent19.4%
Degree or above21.8%
No qualifications14.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)33%
Social rent (2021)19.4%
Private rent (2021)22.8%
Ownership (2041)26.1%
Social rent (2041)16.4%
Social rent change-3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 48,538 pupils.

WBI pupils36.2%
Minority pupils63.8%
EAL growth (projected)+21.1pp
WBI gap (school vs population)21.1pp

Schools are 21pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 85.7%
notEnglishPct 28.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+24.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census