Newcastle-under-Lyme

West Midlands · England
-11.5pp WBI 90.0% → 78.5% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
123,299 Population (2021 Census)
90.0% White British (2021)
83.7% White British (2041 projected)
78.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.0%
white other 2.9%
asian 3.8%
black 1.0%
mixed 1.6%
other 0.7%

Projected 2051

white british 78.5%
white other 9.8%
asian 6.3%
black 0.9%
mixed 3.8%
other 0.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+4.2pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.26 · Dissimilarity: 15.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 25.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.5%
notEnglishPct 6.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

25/100 Low Pressure Rank 247 of 320
Ethnic change10/20
Asylum6/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing9/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55%
Avg home ownership64.8%
Avg social rent16.4%
Degree or above26.7%
No qualifications19%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64.8%
Social rent (2021)16.4%
Private rent (2021)14%
Ownership (2041)62.7%
Social rent (2041)16.2%
Social rent change-0.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.5%
notEnglishPct 6.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+6.3pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census