Merthyr Tydfil
Wales · Wales · W06000024Updated August 2026, this profile covers population as counted at the 2021 Census, ethnicity, religion and country of birth with projections to 2051, arrivals since 2002 and housing, drawn from ONS, DWP, DfE and other official statistics. Modelled projections are labelled as such. Read the methodology and limitations or inspect the official sources.
Merthyr Tydfil had 58,839 residents at the 2021 Census, up 0.1% from 58,802 in 2011. The three largest ethnic groups were White British (93.3%), White Other (3.8%) and Asian (1.5%). This site's Hamilton-Perry model (version 8.0, projected from the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, held within the ONS 2022-based subnational population projections) puts the three largest groups in 2051 at White British (78.6%), White Other (8.2%) and Asian (6.1%).
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Merthyr Tydfil and the councils that border it, on the map
Merthyr Tydfil's estimated population fell 0.8% between mid-2011 and mid-2025, from 58,851 to 58,362 (ONS mid-year estimates, table MYE4). Its White British share fell 1.3 points between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, from 94.6% to 93.3% (ONS Census 2011 table KS201EW, Census 2021 table TS021).
Population of Merthyr Tydfil, 2011 to 2025
| Council | Mid-2011 | Mid-2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 178,782 | 176,078 | −1.5% |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 58,851 | 58,362 | −0.8% |
| Powys | 133,071 | 134,843 | +1.3% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 234,373 | 241,015 | +2.8% |
Change since mid-2011, every year
| Council | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 0.0% | −0.1% | −0.3% | −0.2% | −0.3% | −0.4% | −0.7% | −0.8% | −1.1% | −1.1% | −1.6% | −1.6% | −1.4% | −1.4% | −1.5% |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.1% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.2% | −0.2% | −0.8% |
| Powys | 0.0% | +0.1% | −0.3% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.4% | −0.5% | −0.8% | −1.1% | −0.7% | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 0.0% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +2.1% | +3.1% | +3.2% | +2.8% |
Ethnic groups in Merthyr Tydfil, 2011 and 2021
The map shows the White British share. The bars show all six groups, on one scale, for each council in 2011 and 2021.
- White British
- White Other
- Asian
- Black
- Mixed
- Other
| Council | 2011 | 2021 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 97.3% | 96.3% | −1.0 pts |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 94.6% | 93.3% | −1.3 pts |
| Powys | 96.1% | 94.9% | −1.2 pts |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 96.3% | 95.2% | −1.1 pts |
All six groups, 2011 and 2021
| Council | Census | White British | White Other | Asian | Black | Mixed | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 2011 | 97.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Caerphilly | 2021 | 96.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 2011 | 94.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 2021 | 93.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Powys | 2011 | 96.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Powys | 2021 | 94.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 2011 | 96.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 2021 | 95.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Ethnic composition trajectory
Solid to 2021 is Census. Dashed after that is the model, which was scored against Census 2021 before publication: a mean absolute error of 1.56 percentage points on that one-decade forecast and a bias of +0.05 points, close to unbiased.
Ethnic composition, Merthyr Tydfil
White British White Other Asian
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | White British | White Other | Asian |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 94.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 2021 | 93.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 2026 modelled | 91.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| 2031 modelled | 89.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| 2036 modelled | 86.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| 2041 modelled | 84.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% |
| 2046 modelled | 81.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% |
| 2051 modelled | 78.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
Ethnic composition: Merthyr Tydfil
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Diversity index
low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.18 · Dissimilarity: 18.9
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | Christian | No religion |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 42.3% | 56.1% |
| 2031 modelled | 26.2% | 72.1% |
| 2041 modelled | 14.6% | 83.7% |
| 2051 modelled | 7.6% | 90.7% |
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | UK-born | Foreign-born |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| 2031 modelled | 89.7% | 10.3% |
| 2041 modelled | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 2051 modelled | 70.1% | 29.9% |
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English96.2%
Main language not English3.8%
Cannot speak English well0.9%
Cannot speak English at all0.2%
Total population 3+56,957
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Data flag 3.8% of residents aged 3 and over have a main language other than English (Census 2021, TS029), below the 15% line this site uses to flag language demand. A threshold on one Census variable, not a service-planning assessment. This site publishes no projection of language: it models ethnic group, and ethnic composition change is not a measure of language change.
Demographic change and service exposure
A composite score from five capped components. It measures exposure to demographic change, not service cost or capacity, and it has not been validated against observed service demand. See how the score is built.
Ethnic change14/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language4/20
Housing12/20
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Merthyr Tydfil from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2007 (393 registrations). Total over the full period: 4,919 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 53 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Merthyr Tydfil in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Merthyr Tydfil UK marker
Sex
Male share is 5.3pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (January 2025 to December 2025). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
How Merthyr Tydfil changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 58,802 in 2011 to 58,836 in 2021 (+0.1%). Non-UK-born residents went from 2,641 (4.5% of population) to 3,283 (5.6%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 56,161 95.5% 55,553 94.4% -608
Ireland-born 103 0.2% 96 0.2% -7
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 493 0.8% 465 0.8% -28
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 1,104 1.9% 1,565 2.7% +461
Rest of World 941 1.6% 1,157 2% +216
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Wales labour market
Payrolled employments in the Wales region (December 2025). Provides Merthyr Tydfil with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments1,378,300
Non-UK share10.1%
5-year change · Non-EU +59,900
5-year change · EU -2,000
Top industries by non-UK share (Wales)
Administrative and support services 18.4%
Accommodation and food service activities 17.2%
Health and social work 15.1%
Transportation and storage 13.2%
Manufacturing 12.2%
Source: HM Revenue and Customs, PAYE Real Time Information, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2025; the five-year change runs from December 2020. Counts are employments not employees, rounded to the nearest 100; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2026, ONS, partnership figure for Cwm Taf. Merthyr Tydfil ranks at the 59th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Community Safety Partnership figure for Cwm Taf, which covers Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf. ONS publishes no separate figure for Merthyr Tydfil, so the rate shown is the partnership's, not Merthyr Tydfil's alone.
Total crime / 1k77.2
Violent crime / 1k34.3
Theft / 1k15.9
Drug offences / 1k2.5
Year-on-year +1.4%
Police force: South Wales. It could not place 0.8% of the offences it recorded in this period in any area, and those offences are in no area's figure.
ONS, Crime in England and Wales: Police Force Area data tables, year ending March 2026 (released 23 July 2026), Tables C1, C2 and C5, police recorded crime from the Home Office; rates per 1,000 residents on ONS mid-2025 population estimates. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates and policing priority, and city centre rates are inflated by small resident populations. Offences a force could not place in any area are left out of area figures; each area shows its force's unassigned share.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Merthyr Tydfil's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 24.8%
White: English 25.2%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 13.6%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Merthyr Tydfil pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015-2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000-£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000-£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000-£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150-£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate55.9%
Avg home ownership61.2%
Avg social rent21.4%
Degree or above24.5%
No qualifications26.4%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Merthyr Tydfil are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)6
HMOs per 1,000 population0.10
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2025 (CTB, snapshot 6 October 2025) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Merthyr Tydfil's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 63.0%
White: English: owned 64.4%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 23.0%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)61.2%
Social rent (2021)21.4%
Private rent (2021)15.4%
Ownership (2041)57%
Social rent (2041)21%
Social rent change-0.4pp
Data flag The foreign-born share is projected to rise by 24.3pp between 2021 and 2051 (Census 2021 TS004 country of birth, projected by the Hamilton-Perry method), above the 15pp line this site uses to flag housing demand. A threshold on one projected variable, not a housing-need assessment.
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Merthyr Tydfil, listed A to Z. The percentage shown is the share of each constituency's postcodes that fall in Merthyr Tydfil.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Merthyr Tydfil on Asylum Stats →
Local geography The shared local-authority geography record and its source coverage. Place record on UK Places