Merthyr Tydfil

Wales · Wales
-14.7pp WBI 93.3% → 78.6% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
58,839 Population (2021 Census)
93.3% White British (2021)
84.0% White British (2041 projected)
78.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 93.3%
white other 3.8%
asian 1.5%
black 0.5%
mixed 0.5%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 78.6%
white other 8.2%
asian 6.1%
black 2.3%
mixed 2.7%
other 2.1%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+6.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.18 · Dissimilarity: 18.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 94.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 5.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 29.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.2%
notEnglishPct 7.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

29/100 Low Pressure Rank 219 of 320
Ethnic change14/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing12/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.9%
Avg home ownership61.2%
Avg social rent21.4%
Degree or above24.5%
No qualifications26.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)61.2%
Social rent (2021)21.4%
Private rent (2021)15.4%
Ownership (2041)57%
Social rent (2041)21%
Social rent change-0.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.2%
notEnglishPct 7.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census