Blackburn with Darwen

North West · England
-30.2pp WBI 56.9% → 26.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
154,741 Population (2021 Census)
56.9% White British (2021)
36.3% White British (2041 projected)
26.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 56.9%
white other 3.5%
asian 35.6%
black 0.9%
mixed 1.7%
other 1.4%

Projected 2051

white british 26.7%
white other 8.7%
asian 58.2%
black 1.4%
mixed 3.2%
other 1.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-9.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.1pp Structural effect
-4.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.54 · Dissimilarity: 26.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 45.5% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 81.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 18.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 50.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.5%
notEnglishPct 25.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

74/100 High Pressure Rank 7 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate36.4%
Avg home ownership37.9%
Avg social rent12.1%
Degree or above17.1%
No qualifications15.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)37.9%
Social rent (2021)12.1%
Private rent (2021)13.4%
Ownership (2041)26.6%
Social rent (2041)9.7%
Social rent change-2.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 27,931 pupils.

WBI pupils39.5%
Minority pupils60.5%
EAL growth (projected)+17.4pp
WBI gap (school vs population)17.4pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.5%
notEnglishPct 25.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+20.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census