Barking and Dagenham

London · England
-28.2pp WBI 30.9% → 2.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
218,871 Population (2021 Census)
30.9% White British (2021)
7.2% White British (2041 projected)
2.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 30.9%
white other 14.0%
asian 25.9%
black 21.4%
mixed 4.3%
other 3.6%

Projected 2051

white british 2.7%
white other 14.6%
asian 54.7%
black 10.2%
mixed 1.7%
other 16.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-18.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.4pp Structural effect
-14.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.88 · Dissimilarity: 43.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 71.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 58.7%
Foreign-born (2021) 41.3%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 76.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 75.9%
notEnglishPct 48.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

59/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 48 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum6/20
School15/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate35%
Avg home ownership22.1%
Avg social rent15.3%
Degree or above17.6%
No qualifications11.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)22.1%
Social rent (2021)15.3%
Private rent (2021)15.4%
Ownership (2041)15.1%
Social rent (2041)9%
Social rent change-6.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 45,308 pupils.

WBI pupils15.9%
Minority pupils84.1%
EAL growth (projected)+15.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)15.0pp

Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 75.9%
notEnglishPct 48.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+23.7pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census