Flintshire

Wales · Wales
-15.9pp WBI 93.2% → 77.3% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
154,960 Population (2021 Census)
93.2% White British (2021)
83.1% White British (2041 projected)
77.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 93.2%
white other 4.4%
asian 0.9%
black 0.6%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 77.3%
white other 9.3%
asian 5.9%
black 2.5%
mixed 2.9%
other 2.1%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+4.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.18 · Dissimilarity: 18.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 24.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.3%
notEnglishPct 7.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

26/100 Low Pressure Rank 240 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing9/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate59.7%
Avg home ownership71%
Avg social rent14.3%
Degree or above28.7%
No qualifications18.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)71%
Social rent (2021)14.3%
Private rent (2021)13.2%
Ownership (2041)66.7%
Social rent (2041)13.5%
Social rent change-0.8pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.3%
notEnglishPct 7.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census