Derby

East Midlands · England
-38.1pp WBI 66.2% → 28.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
261,364 Population (2021 Census)
66.2% White British (2021)
41.9% White British (2041 projected)
28.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 66.2%
white other 7.6%
asian 15.6%
black 4.0%
mixed 3.7%
other 2.9%

Projected 2051

white british 28.2%
white other 14.2%
asian 19.0%
black 9.4%
mixed 5.7%
other 23.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-9.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.4pp Structural effect
-3.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.62 · Dissimilarity: 9.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 23.7% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 80.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 19.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 53.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.0%
notEnglishPct 25.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

74/100 High Pressure Rank 6 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate48.1%
Avg home ownership46.8%
Avg social rent15.3%
Degree or above23.9%
No qualifications16.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)46.8%
Social rent (2021)15.3%
Private rent (2021)18.3%
Ownership (2041)37.9%
Social rent (2041)14%
Social rent change-1.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 45,668 pupils.

WBI pupils48.9%
Minority pupils51.1%
EAL growth (projected)+17.3pp
WBI gap (school vs population)17.3pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.0%
notEnglishPct 25.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+24.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census