Birmingham

West Midlands · England
-32.2pp WBI 42.9% → 10.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
1,144,922 Population (2021 Census)
42.9% White British (2021)
20.2% White British (2041 projected)
10.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 42.9%
white other 5.7%
asian 31.0%
black 11.0%
mixed 4.8%
other 4.5%

Projected 2051

white british 10.8%
white other 5.6%
asian 23.9%
black 24.5%
mixed 3.6%
other 31.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-10.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.1pp Structural effect
-6.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.79 · Dissimilarity: 33.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 53.5% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 73.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 26.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 62.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 84.4%
notEnglishPct 31.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

67/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 20 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum11/20
School18/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate32.5%
Avg home ownership29.5%
Avg social rent14.2%
Degree or above17.6%
No qualifications13.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)29.5%
Social rent (2021)14.2%
Private rent (2021)14.4%
Ownership (2041)21.7%
Social rent (2041)13%
Social rent change-1.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 201,666 pupils.

WBI pupils24.7%
Minority pupils75.3%
EAL growth (projected)+18.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)18.2pp

Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 84.4%
notEnglishPct 31.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+22.7pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census