Leicester

East Midlands · England
-24.8pp WBI 33.2% → 8.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
368,571 Population (2021 Census)
33.2% White British (2021)
14.3% White British (2041 projected)
8.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 33.2%
white other 7.7%
asian 43.4%
black 7.8%
mixed 3.8%
other 4.1%

Projected 2051

white british 8.4%
white other 13.4%
asian 45.1%
black 10.7%
mixed 3.6%
other 18.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-11.9pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.8pp Structural effect
-8.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.77 · Dissimilarity: 41.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 40.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 58.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 41.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 76.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 70.0%
notEnglishPct 60.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

70/100 High Pressure Rank 16 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum19/20
School13/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate29%
Avg home ownership21.1%
Avg social rent11.2%
Degree or above13.4%
No qualifications12.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)21.1%
Social rent (2021)11.2%
Private rent (2021)16.4%
Ownership (2041)15.3%
Social rent (2041)9.2%
Social rent change-2.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 59,741 pupils.

WBI pupils20.5%
Minority pupils79.5%
EAL growth (projected)+12.7pp
WBI gap (school vs population)12.7pp

Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 70.0%
notEnglishPct 60.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+18.9pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census