Shepway

South East · England
-5.7pp WBI 88.0% → 82.3% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
109,759 Population (2021 Census)
88.0% White British (2021)
84.6% White British (2041 projected)
82.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.0%
white other 4.6%
asian 3.9%
black 0.6%
mixed 1.9%
other 1.0%

Projected 2051

white british 82.3%
white other 6.5%
asian 4.6%
black 0.7%
mixed 4.8%
other 1.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+4.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.30 · Dissimilarity: 13.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 89.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 10.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 35.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

19/100 Stable Rank 290 of 320
Ethnic change5/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing12/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53%
Avg home ownership63.4%
Avg social rent10.4%
Degree or above26.2%
No qualifications18.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)63.4%
Social rent (2021)10.4%
Private rent (2021)21.8%
Ownership (2041)62.6%
Social rent (2041)10.3%
Social rent change-0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+3.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census